With Democrats firmly in control of statewide offices and the Legislature, California isn’t often seen as a “battleground state.” But California could decide which party controls Congress — and both parties and their allies are spending tens of millions of dollars to seize the opportunity.
As CalMatters politics reporter Yue Stella Yu explains, outside political groups working independently from candidates’ campaigns are pouring big bucks into some of California’s most competitive congressional districts. In the five tightest races, political parties and other groups spent a total of $71 million as of Thursday, airing television ads, rolling out mobile billboards and reaching out to voters.
Congressional Leadership Fund, a PAC tied to GOP House Speaker Mike Johnson, plans to spend more money in California than in any other state — $40 million. Its Democratic counterpart, the House Majority PAC, has also spent more than $40 million to run ads in the state.
Dan Conston, president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, in a statement: “California remains an essential battleground for holding the House majority, which is why we’ve made such substantial and comprehensive investments in the state.”Alisha Heng, press secretary of the House Majority PAC, in a statement: “House Democrats are well-positioned and have the momentum, and we will flip the House blue”America PAC, a super PAC created by Elon Musk, the tech mogul and Tesla CEO, has spent $3 million — more than in any other state — promoting Republicans in three California House races. Cryptocurrency-linked super PACs have also invested millions of dollars on Republican incumbents in three California swing districts, reports Politico.
So who’s winning the money war in California among the candidates themselves? In six of the most competitive districts, Democrats outraised Republicans by almost 300% between July and September. For one Democratic strategist, this signals the waning influence of former GOP House Speaker Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield, and the rise of leaders in the House Democratic Caucus.
Besides congressional races, California is a cash cow for Democratic and Republican presidential candidates. The campaign for Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden raised almost $30 million from California as of July. And former President Donald Trump and his running mate, U.S. Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, have been currying the favor (and wallets) of influential Silicon Valley tech executives and crypto investors.
Read more about the money flowing into California’s congressional races in Stella’s story.
VotingMatters: CalMatters has a new local lookup tool to find out what you’ll be voting on for the November election. We’re also hosting a series of public events. The next ones are today at Cal State Monterey Bay; today in Los Angeles, co-hosted by Boyles Heights Beat; and Sunday at the Foster City library. Sign up here. We’re also partnering with Zócalo Public Square on an event Tuesday in Los Angeles for young voters. Sign up here.
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Other Stories You Should Know
Newsom stumps for Harris
Gov. Gavin Newsom during the first day of the Democratic National Convention at the United Center in Chicago, Ill., on Aug. 19, 2024. Photo by Gripas Yuri, ABACA via ReutersLet’s get into some more campaign news:
Newsom returning to the trail: Gov. Gavin Newsom is out campaigning for Harris again. Thursday, he appeared at an event in Charlotte on the first day of early voting in North Carolina, a key swing state.
Besides praising his fellow Californian, including her Wednesday night interview on Fox News, Newsom warned about disinformation and misinformation from Trump.
Newsom: “The other side sells fear. They weaponize grievance. … Facts don’t matter.”The governor plans to stump in Michigan, another battleground state, before returning to California on Saturday. Newsom’s role in the Harris campaign has been somewhat murky: He stood by President Joe Biden until he dropped out and backed Harris in late July. And Newsom didn’t get a very prominent role at the Democratic National Convention in August.
Fact-checking Prop. 33 ads: Both sides have poured tens of millions of dollars to sway voter on Proposition 33, a statewide ballot measure to give more leeway for local governments to limit rent increases. But how accurate are their campaign ads?
In one spot, supporters claim homelessness is up nearly 40% in California since 2019, reports CalMatters’ Felicia Mello. But the latest count shows homelessness is up 23%. In another ad, opponents say Prop. 33 would repeal more than 100 state housing laws and lower rents so much that it would cripple landlords’ profits. But that’s not quite true either: Though the measure would weaken some laws, California courts have already ruled that rent control policies that don’t allow landlords to make a “reasonable return on their investment” are unconstitutional.
Learn more about debunking Prop. 33 ads in Felicia’s story.
Protecting voters: To ensure members of their party get the election day information they need, the California Democratic and Republican parties have set up separate resources for voters. A hotline went live Thursday for Democratic voters to call in questions or if they run into problems at the polls. And the GOP has an online portal to access information and report any election integrity issues.
Impact of legacy admissions ban?
High school senior Daniel Alfaro, who is working to get into UC Berkeley and whose parents immigrated from Mexico and El Salvador, at Oakland Technical High School on Oct. 8, 2024. Photo by Manuel Orbegozo for CalMattersNext year, private nonprofit colleges in California will be banned from admitting students based in part on whether their family members donated money to the school or previously attended the school. But as CalMatters’ Carolyn Jones explains, the measure is largely symbolic.
Only six of California’s 90 private nonprofit colleges admitted about 2,100 students with legacy or donor ties last fall. Instead of colleges paying a hefty fine for violating the law (a provision of the original bill that was ultimately dropped), the state attorney general can only sue colleges into complying.
And while many private colleges said that legacy admissions help them raise money, some said following the new law won’t upend their admissions process anyway, since the students they accepted with alumni or donor connections already met other admissions criteria.
Still, proponents say the measure is important.
Assemblymember Phil Ting, a San Francisco Democrat and co-author of the law: “Students who already have every advantage should not be taking spots away from students who’ve worked extra hard to get there.”Read more about legacy admissions in Carolyn’s story.
And lastly: Ballot prop videos
People look over pamphlets summarizing state propositions at a VotingMatters event co-hosted by CalMatters and the San Fernando Valley Sun at Bodevi Wine & Espresso Bar in San Fernando on Sept. 30, 2024. Photo by Carlin Stiehl for CalMattersThis week, CalMatters video strategy director Robert Meeks is sharing versions of our “Prop. in a Minute” videos with viewers of our partner PBS SoCal. Watch the ones on Prop. 4 and Prop. 5.
SoCalMatters airs at 5:58 p.m. weekdays on PBS SoCal.
California Voices
CalMatters columnist Dan Walters: A report estimates it would cost California $100 billion-plus to provide shelter and support for every unhoused person — but are Californians willing to spend that much to end the crisis?
Other things worth your time:
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California AG Rob Bonta wont take a position on Prop. 36 // KCRA
Trump ad blaming Harris for freeing Oakland journalist’s killer isn’t true, reporters say // KQED
Trump targets San Jose State player, pledges trans athlete ban // San Francisco Chronicle
How Harris’ actions changed these Californians’ lives forever // Los Angeles Times
SF sees more South Asians in politics after Harris // The San Francisco Standard
CA Republican Assembly candidate pleaded guilty to welfare fraud // Politico
Officials racing to vaccinate CA dairy workers against bird and seasonal flu // Politico
If AI is Hollywoods next big thing, what’s taking so long? // Los Angeles Times
Wife of OC supervisor’s aide got a $275K contract, but county says work wasn’t done // LAist
Oakland Mayor Thao slams FBI raid, shoots back at critics // San Francisco Chronicle
LA Catholic diocese to pay record $880M settlement over clergy abuse // Los Angeles Times
SF schools superintendent Matt Wayne set to resign // San Francisco Chronicle